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Ecological niche and potential geographic distribution of the invasive fruit fly Bactrocera invadens (Diptera, Tephritidae).

De Meyer M, Robertson MP, Mansell MW, Ekesi S, Tsuruta K, Mwaiko W, Vayssières JF, Peterson AT

Royal Museum for Central Africa, Entomology Section, Tervuren, B-3080 Tervuren, Belgium. demeyer@africamuseum.be

Two correlative approaches to the challenge of ecological niche modeling (genetic algorithm, maximum entropy) were used to estimate the potential global distribution of the invasive fruit fly, Bactrocera invadens, based on associations between known occurrence records and a set of environmental predictor variables. The two models yielded similar estimates, largely corresponding to Equatorial climate classes with high levels of precipitation. The maximum entropy approach was somewhat more conservative in its evaluation of suitability, depending on thresholds for presence/absence that are selected, largely excluding areas with distinct dry seasons; the genetic algorithm models, in contrast, indicate that climate class as partly suitable. Predictive tests based on independent distributional data indicate that model predictions are quite robust. Field observations in Benin and Tanzania confirm relationships between seasonal occurrences of this species and humidity and temperature.

Published 23 December 2009 in Bull Entomol Res, 100(1): 35-48.
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